Georgia

Georgia has been experiencing a sharp political polarization in recent years. This will have a significant impact on the democratic development and international direction of the country. Political confrontation has become especially acute after the 2024 parliamentary elections, when the ruling party, Georgian Dream, and its opponents took sharply opposing positions from each other. This confrontation has grown even more in various layers of society and today has a great impact on the daily lives of the Georgian people. The country stands at a difficult crossroads, where its future depends on the choice, aligning towards Russia or integrating with Europe.

Historical background of the crisis

For the past two decades, the country has been at the center of a conflict between pro-Western forces that support EU membership and pro-Russian forces that push for reintegration with Russia.

The majority of Georgia’s population has always wanted to join the EU and NATO. Georgia began to pursue these goals after the 2003 Rose Revolution, which brought the United National Movement and Mikheil Saakashvili to power. The National Movement ruled the country from 2003 to 2012. The NM began to implement reforms.  They turned the country around, transforming it from a failed state into a much stronger nation with improved infrastructure. In contrast, their opponents pointed to a growing authoritarian streak that has seen the government violently crack down on protests and storm opposition TV channels.

The authoritarian moves in the country paid off in 2012 with a change of government. The winner of the election was the Georgian Dream party, founded by billionaire businessman Bidzina Ivanishvili. Despite full political control, Ivanishvili soon left the post of Prime Minister, although he remained involved in important decisions. In general, he preferred to maintain a low profile and control in shadow. Foreign policy became more conciliatory towards Russia, although Georgia gained a free trade agreement with the European Union and a visa-free regime between 2012 and 2022.

Georgian Dream has caught up with and prosecuted political opponents, including former Tbilisi mayor, Prime Minister and President Saakashvili. Over time, pro-Western leaders, including Giorgi Kvirikashvili, Giorgi Gakharia, Giorgi Margvelashvili, and Salome Zurabishvili, have left the party, indicating an internal crisis within the party.

Following the 2020 parliamentary elections, the opposition boycotted parliament for six months in protest over allegations of election fraud. In the spring of 2021, following mediation efforts by European Council President Charles Michel, the parties agreed on some initial steps towards resuming cooperation, including a commitment to comprehensive reforms of electoral law and the justice system. However, in July 2021, the ruling party withdrew from Charles Michel’s agreement, leading to protracted political polarization between the ruling and opposition parties.

The situation changed dramatically after Russia invaded Ukraine, with the centralist stance no longer held, and the Georgian Dream(GD) came under great pressure. GD began making provocative statements. GD believe that there was a Global War Party(GWP) trying to drag Georgia into the war in Ukraine; all other Georgian political parties are controlled by the Global War Party (GWP). The GWP also influences NATO, the EU, and the Biden administration.

In addition to the alarming rhetoric, GD tried to introduce a Foreign Agents Law in 2023. GD argued that the law would only force NGOs to register as "foreign agents" if they received a certain share of their income from foreign sources. In effect, the law would allow GD to shut down any NGO they wanted to investigate. In 2023, there was a huge protest against it, which forced the GD to withdraw the law and promise not to introduce it again. This was a big victory for the pro-EU team in the country. Georgia became a candidate country for EU membership at the end of 2023.

In just a few months, the GD reintroduced the law on foreign agents. This was followed by even larger protests than the previous time, with up to 150000 Georgians taking part in the protest in May. Unfortunately, the government decided to protect the law and did everything it could to do so. They brutally dispersed the demonstrations with water cannons and tear gas, and arrested and beat protesters. Despite long-standing mass protests and international criticism, they passed this law.

Latest events

The official results of the October 2024 parliamentary elections triggered a major political crisis in the country, fueled by allegations of electoral fraud and irregularities. The ruling Georgian Dream party won a majority of seats in parliament (53.93%, securing 89 out of 150 mandates), a result that the opposition denied, while protesters claimed the elections were rigged. This led to mass protests that continued for several months. The European Union and its member states, as well as the United States, demanded an investigation into the electoral irregularities. 

On election day, Edison Research exit polls showed GD receiving only 41% of the vote, indicating a likely loss.  Edison Research has historically been accurate in Georgian exit polls, with a margin of error of only 2-3% over the past 12 years of elections. HarrisX reported a similar results.

The opposition highlighted several main fraud schemes: (1) taking ID cards from voters. (2) having their supporters vote in different places with different IDs. (3) voting on behalf of people who were not in the country (4)Most significantly, violating the secrecy of the vote. This year, a new voting system was introduced in which voters had to color their ballots and slide them into a counting machine. It turned out that the ballots were leaking and it was easy to figure out who a particular voter had voted for. The opposition parties with the most supporters were listed at the beginning of the ballot, while the Georgian Dream was at the end, meaning that by looking at where the ballot was leaking, it was clear whether the person voted for the opposition parties or the Georgian Dream. The Tetritskaro Regional Court ruled that the elections were unconstitutional because the principle of secrecy was violated. However, the Court of Appeal overturned this decision, as it always does if something happens against the governing party.

Many irregularities were reported during the election process, including intimidation and vote-buying in villages, leading to the Georgian Dream party securing over 90% of the vote in these areas. The European Union Ambassador to Georgia, Pavel Herchinsky, stated that international observers assessed the elections as neither free nor fair. The European Commission and its High Representative Josep Borrell have called on the Georgian authorities to investigate the violations swiftly and transparently.

One of the most significant announcements came on 28 November, when Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze announced that his government would suspend EU accession negotiations until 2028. This announcement has fuelled political tensions, as the EU and the European Parliament have called on the Georgian authorities to launch an investigation and provide an objective assessment of the allegations. At the same time, Russia expressed its support for the Georgian government’s decision.

In parallel, protests and another radical wave erupted when the parliament approved the composition of Irakli Kobakhidze’s government on 28 November. On the same day, the European Parliament adopted a resolution calling for new elections in Georgia under international supervision. Kobakhidze declared at a press conference that the EU had become a “blackmail tool” for Georgia. After the EU criticized his decisions, Kobakhidze and his party reaffirmed their position that Georgia would continue to develop independently.

As the protest movement intensified, the police used force extensively against demonstrators. Amnesty International condemned the Georgian government’s approach, saying it would continue to use violence against dissent. Although the government insisted that this was only "systemic violence" by protesters, demonstrators and journalists made numerous statements about police brutality.

As the protests persisted, new legal and political controversies also erupted. In December 2024, the Georgian parliament elected Mikheil Kavelashvili as president, further intensifying the confrontation between the ruling party and the opposition. This sparked a new wave of protests and a mass street movement that continued for several months. Many people began to protest, rejecting the legitimacy of the current government and calling for new elections.

The protests, in which tens of thousands of people participated, clearly expressed the dissatisfaction of Georgian society and their fear that the country would lose its European course. The Georgian population, which historically believed that the European Union was the path to a better future, is now worried that the ruling party will postpone the issue of EU membership.

On December 18, 2024, the Public Defender of Georgia reported that its representatives had visited 327 detainees, of whom 225 reported ill-treatment, and 157 showed signs of physical injuries. Representatives of Transparency International Georgia, the European Orbit of Georgia, and the Rule of Law Center reported that Georgian Dream “planned the systematic torture of peaceful demonstrators.” They reported that detainees were “beaten in the face, head, eyeballs, ribs, [and] kidneys” and that security forces robbed detainees of their personal belongings.

In December 2024, Shaishmelashvili, the former head of the Special Tasks Department, stated in an interview that police violence was systematic and carried out on the orders of Bidzina Ivanishvili and Zviad Kharazishvili (head of the Special Tasks Department). He said that no investigation was underway or planned. Protests continued after the elections, with hundreds of protesters arrested, beaten, or tortured by police and violent groups affiliated with the ruling party, who also attacked journalists. As of December 13, 2024, Amnesty International reported that 300 of the 460 detainees had been tortured or otherwise ill-treated. 80 people were hospitalized with serious injuries, including broken bones and concussions. Amnesty described the police and the justice system as an instrument of institutionalized repression that sought to suppress peaceful opposition.

As of December 19, 2024, 70 journalists had been injured in the protests. Reporters Without Borders (RSF) believes that the police violence was systematic and coordinated with “masked groups.” According to RSF, the investigation “offers little hope of accountability.”

On December 24, Human Rights Watch said that the police violence was “widespread and clearly punitive.” Among the victims were Avtandil Kuchava, who lost consciousness twice after being hit in the head by police, and poet Zviad Ratiani, who was repeatedly beaten by police. Journalist Aleksandre Keshelashvili, who suffered a concussion and a broken nose, was injured on November 29.

The disputed parliamentary session voted to suspend the mandates of 49 opposition MPs, leaving the parliament with 101 members. The opposition has declared the October 26, 2024 elections fraudulent, has refused to serve in the legislature, and is demanding new elections. In contrast three member switched to the “opposition”. They did the same thing last year when some members of GD left the party to form a new party, People's Power.The purpose of this move was to make a negative statements as a new party rather than as a representative of GD.

The Georgian Dream party is announcing new laws that will restrict the activities of the media and NGOs. The ruling party leader, Mamuka Mdinaradze, has said that it plans to define “media objectivity” and limit foreign funding. The Russian-style “agent law” adopted in 2023 was re-adopted in 2024 with a changed name, and now an even stricter version is being initiated.

The ruling party is banning the mandatory participation of NGOs in the legislative process and the receipt of foreign funding for public sector employees, including for training and visits. It is also planned to tighten migration and juvenile legislation and increase ministerial discretion in the appointment of personnel in the public sector.

On February 5, the controversial parliament adopted a draft law on the first reading that restricts freedom of protest and expression. The amendments provide for a sharp increase in fines and administrative detention, a ban on “insulting” public figures, additional restrictions on holding rallies, and the criminalization of insulting law enforcement officers.

The new draft laws impose strict restrictions on holding assemblies and demonstrations. Fines and prison terms are increasing, and protests are banned in public spaces, on highways, near judges' homes, and near state institutions. The state is increasingly restricting protests, but the wave of resistance continues.

The impact on society and institutions

In early December, opposition media outlets described the resignations of government officials as a "systemic collapse. 49 police officers, including Shaishmelashvili and the head of the department responsible for dispersing protests, resigned. In addition, on December 31, several Central Election Commission employees were dismissed for criticizing the Georgian Dream, and on January 3, 2025, OC Media described the dismissal process as a "purge of public sector employees critical of the government." Members of the National Bank of Georgia stated that the suspension of EU accession negotiations was unconstitutional. Doctors and business organizations protested the government’s decision, saying it jeopardizes its European path.

About 40 employees of the Public Defender of Georgia published an open letter protesting the self-convened opening of parliament. They noted that the convening of parliament violated the constitution and required a violation of the independence of the Public Defender. Representatives of the Public Defender claim that the process is flawed, as an elected parliament can only be considered legitimate after a court resolves election disputes.

Leading Georgian lawyers, including Vakhushti Menabde and Vakhtang Khmaladze, believe that the actions of the Georgian Dream violate the constitution and parliamentary rules. Khmaladze, who was the author of Georgia’s current constitution, called Kavelashvili’s election “illegitimate” and said that the parliament should not be recognized until the election results were confirmed.

In December 2024, political polarization took place in civil society and the media, where only two main positions were generally expressed – against and in favor of the government. On December 3, political scientist Stephen F. Jones stated that Ivanishvili had become an “unaccountable ruler” whose government was close to collapse. He convincingly noted that the GD had made three major mistakes: returning the bill on foreign agents, allegedly rigging the elections, and suspending negotiations with the European Union.

According to Jones, the Georgian Dream is fighting criticism and its strategy is based solely on the support of the elites. The government’s suppression and persecution of critics was precisely the result of this. He said the regime was committed to authoritarian strategies such as censorship, intimidation, and violence. Civil servants, students, and other social groups participated in protests against police violence. On December 13, parliament passed a bill banning the wearing of masks during protests, a further step in the Towards fire control. The new regulations also strictly regulate the use of fireworks and require a license for their export, import and sale.

The Georgian Dream was formed in 2012 from a liberal coalition, but it has now become the representative of an authoritarian political force, where state institutions no longer reflect the interests of citizens.

On 28 November 2024, the European Parliament, by 444 votes to 72, with 82 abstentions, declared that it would not recognize the October parliamentary elections. The foreign ministers of the Weimar Triangle (France, Germany, Poland) told the European Parliament that the election violations and violence against protesters, journalists and opposition politicians were a democratic setback. They announced that the EU would end visa-free travel for Georgian officials.

On January 13, 2025, Michael Roth, the head of the German Bundestag's foreign affairs committee, took part in a protest in Tbilisi and declared that new elections were necessary. The EU's foreign policy chief, Kaja Kalas, condemned the government's actions and criticized the brutal crackdown on peaceful protesters, journalists, and politicians.

Brussels suspends visa-free travel for Georgian diplomats and officials. US Congress imposes sanctions under the MEGOBARI Act. Senator Wicker says the Georgian Dream could usurp power. French President Macron condemns police violence.

OSCE launches Vienna Mechanism procedure. Council of Europe calls for new elections, but Georgian Dream rejects.

Ukraine, the US, UK, and Baltic states impose sanctions on senior Georgian officials.

Possible Scenarios

Georgian politics is on a knife’s edge. The stakes are particularly high, not only for the fate of the winners and losers, but also for the future of the country. Compromise and negotiation are part of resolving even the most bitter political conflicts, but they require a willingness to back down on the part of the ruling party and a willingness to talk on the part of the opposition. 

Until 2024, the Georgian government enjoyed the approval of a significant part of the population, but it has lost support. Important groups, such as journalists and civil servants in the Ministry of Defense, the National Bank, the Ministry of Education, and the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, have begun to “speak truth to power” and speak out against government repression. Most importantly, business associations, such as the American Chamber of Commerce and the Free Business Online Platform, which unites more than 1,800 Georgian companies, have protested government measures that are harmful to business. The leaders of the Georgian Dream, who face threats to their fate and freedom and are unable to govern without the cooperation of their own civil servants, could, in some scenarios, GD may move to gradual but systematic repression, such as fines, imprisonment, censorship, and the closure of media outlets. This process has already begun. However, it poses a dilemma: more repression will lead to greater resistance, greater isolation of the government at home and abroad. This may work for a while, but it will not renew the government, restore partnerships with Western trading partners, or stabilize the political system.

Scenario One: Belarusization of Georgia

To ensure that the presidency is held by someone who lacks the resources or experience to act as a strong, independent player, GD elected Mikheil Kavelashvili- a former professional footballer with neither knowledge nor connections. Georgian Dream is subordinating all state institutions and tightening its grip on the state. The next step is to fully implement the so-called “Russian law” to crack down on civil society organizations, free media, and any other critical voices. To purge state institutions of those who might criticize government policies, the ruling party will double down on its proposed changes to public sector regulations to make it easier to dismiss officials and influence all sectors and the distribution of power.

This could lead to the country’s further alienation and isolation from the democratic international community. Georgia will become yet another authoritarian post-Soviet state, serving as a shadow economy and a gray zone for circumventing sanctions.

Despite the crackdown, protests are likely to continue, leading to increased Russian involvement and potentially direct support through military personnel. This option has already been suggested by some Russian officials and has been successfully tested in Kazakhstan in 2022, and a full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Georgia is likely to see a brain drain, economic shocks, and dependence on Russia. This is already happening, as the number of migrants has increased dramatically, and the country is overly dependent on Russian goods.

Scenario Two: Status quo Remains

In this scenario, the Georgian Dream does not give up its single-party grip on power and still manages to achieve the promised “reset” of relations with the West. The Trump administration’s isolationist foreign policy and concerns about China allow the GD to make the status quo acceptable to the West. However, this also implies some concessions from the ruling party, such as a revision of the “Foreign Agents Law”.

This scenario is not sustainable, as it implies constant protests and public discontent. Georgia has already seen the resignation of some officials and ambassadors in the wake of recent developments, and this trend is likely to increase as the political crisis deepens. Continued political instability could ultimately lead to early parliamentary elections (scenario 3) or a turn toward authoritarianism (scenario 1).

Scenario Three: Rose Revolution 2.0

In this third scenario, the ongoing internal and external pressure begins to bear fruit. The Georgian Dream is forced to find a political way out of the confrontation with civil society. Similar to what happened during the Rose Revolution in 2003, the judiciary will annul the election results. Under the close supervision of a new election administration and Western partners, new parliamentary elections will be held in early spring 2025. Most likely, the Georgian Dream will survive as a viable political force, but the opposition parties will manage to form a coalition government. Georgia will experience a reform overload.

A coalition government (something modern Georgia has no experience with) would strengthen democratization and liberalization policies, renew the Associated Trio (Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine), reopen EU membership negotiations, and deepen cooperation with NATO.

Conclusion

Domestic, public pressure to return Georgia to a democratic path is vital. A coalition government would restore checks and balances and depoliticize public institutions. To prevent Georgia from becoming another failed state that fell victim to the authoritarian Parisian regime, Western partners need to engage more actively with civil society and other democratic actors in Georgia.

What happens in the rest of the world will have a major impact on Georgia’s democratic prospects in 2025. The West also bears responsibility for the outcome. Georgia is a small country that cannot control its external political environment; it is overly dependent on foreign investment for economic growth. The outcome of the war in Ukraine, the evolution of Russia-US relations under US President Donald Trump, and elections across Europe (in Germany, Poland, and the Czech Republic) will have significant implications for Georgia in particular and the South Caucasus in general.